The complexity of projects leads to an exposure to risk. Risks are dynamic events which can lead to project overruns, increased costs and health and safety incidents; and can rarely be traced back to a single discrete event. In projects, risks exist within a complex environment of interconnected causes and effects, which generates closed chains of feedback.

Simulation is a useful tool for Risk Analysis, and System Dynamics is an efficient method of simulating the interactions within a complex system. System Dynamics is a methodology for studying and managing complex feedback systems, such as those found in business and other social systems. Feedback refers to the situation where a change in one variable affects other variables over time, which in turn affects the original variable, i.e. a cycle of causes and effects. Studying the links between variables in isolation will not determine how the system will behave as a whole. A System Dynamics model looks at the numerous interactions that make up the system, and can be used to investigate dynamic consequences of changes to model variables.

System dynamics models can be used to investigate the interrelated flows of tasks, errors and personnel through the different phases of a project. System Dynamics models can also be integrated with standard risk assessment and cost estimation techniques to give a holistic risk assessment solution. System Dynamics models can also be used to perform process evaluation and as an aid to project planning.

HVR is the leading supplier of System Dynamics consultancy in Europe. HVR have applied the System Dynamics technique across a diverse range of business sectors, such that System Dynamics is now recognized as a core strength within HVR in both defence and commercial circles. HVR has over 10 professionally trained consultants and has undertaken over 100 studies for commercial and government clients. HVR has also developed a published methodology for validating System Dynamics models. In addition, HVR has developed a unique capability in integrating System Dynamics models with other packages (Excel, ACCESS, Visual Basic, Delphi etc.) to create user-friendly models around a System Dynamics engine.